Sports Talk with MC

By MC

Hey sports fans! I know it’s been awhile since I’ve written anything here. Blame it on personal circumstances and a whole lot of work, but what’s important is that I’m back on this beautiful Easter Sunday morning to give you my thoughts on the various goings-on in the NBA today.

*Houston, we don’t have that big a problem: After a racking up 22 straight wins, and then, 2 consecutive losses, the TMac-led Houston Rockets beat the Golden State Warriors today, 109-106, to hold on to the number 3 spot in the ridiculously competitive Western Conference. Tracy McGrady scored 26 points for the Rockets, while Baron Davis led all scorers for the adrenaline-charged Warriors with 27 markers. Is Houston the best team in the Western Conference? Not by a long shot. If it isn’t Houston, then who is it? If I HAD to choose one team right now, I’d pick the Lakers, just because they’ve managed to keep themselves above water without Bynum and Gasol. Bring those two back, along with Chris Mihm and Trevor Ariza, and come playoff time, teams like the Spurs, Celtics, Hornets, and Pistons will REALLY have reason to sweat. The Rockets’ skill, in my view, has simply been inflated due to their history-making winning streak. The Suns could beat them in a seven game series (the Suns have won 6 straight to date, look out), and so could a team like Utah. Luis Scola is good, but he isn’t going to contain a Carlos Boozer, a Gasol, or a Tim Duncan in the postseason. I feel for McGrady, though. A guy with his talent ought to get past the first round somehow. What’s more, his maturity as a leader has grown by leaps and bounds this year too. Props to Rafer Alston also for FINALLY playing under control.

*Trouble in the Big D: Okay, so the Mavericks are 0-7 since the Kidd deal against teams with winning records. What’s the deal here?

I think that the Mavericks have two major issues they need to address. One, Avery Johnson seems to be too controlling a coach. And two, the Kidd trade has made the Mavs more efficient doing fastbreaks, but then, when Kidd has run, not everyone has run with him. To make a long story short, Dallas seems to favor isolations a little too much to revert to Kidd’s free flowing style.

Avery Johnson likes to play-call from the sidelines. This is something he cannot do with J-Kidd and expect fantastic results with. Kidd is a maestro of improvisation, and when you have Avery breathing down your neck everytime down court, then where’s the fun in that? Coaching change after this season? I personally wouldn’t be opposed to it.

Dallas is still a team that can run, despite the absence of the older Nelson, but then, how athletic are they, really? For me, the only freak athlete they have out on the floor is Josh Howard. Apart from that, Dampier is a stiff, Stack and Jason Terry are jumpshooters who occasionally will cut around and Dirk, who is a ballet dancer for a man his size, is still, well, a man his size (a “big”). So, when Kidd decides to fire up the Mavs offensive break, he does not have an Amare Stoudemire to flick up alley-oop passes to, neither does he have a Richard Jefferson or Vince Carter type (Josh Howard still isn’t as freak-ish as VC or RJ) to sprint on the wings with. And yes, Kenyon Martin still runs, but he does so in the Mile High City. So, Kidd seems to be a cheetah amidst rhinos. Steve Nash had a similar problem, in my view. When Stevie was in Dallas, Michael Finley still had hops, but was on the downswing and was more of a jumpshooter to begin with, Dirk was more of a finesse iso player and jumpshooter, Nick Van Exel was a slasher and a ballhog, Raef Lafrentz was a jumpshooter and Shawn Bradley was, well, a very large shadow with deadly elbows. Ouch. You get the picture.

I think this was a bad deal for the Mavericks not neccessarily because they lost ground defensively. Rather, I think that the team’s on-court chemistry, in general, has become scrambled. While Devin Harris may have not been Kidd in terms of experience, court vision, and physical strength, he was, though, on the upswing of his career, somewhat ala-Tony Parker. I don’t like the fact that the Mavs mortgaged their future on an aging point guard who can’t shoot jumpers. Harris is a better slasher, a quicker defender, and was, to Johnson’s liking, an isolation type player. Kidd is not.

My fearless forecast? Look for Dallas to get killed by the Lakers, Rockets, Spurs, or Hornets in round one of the playoffs should they not get this thing together soon. It doesn’t help either that for this year, they’re only 15-19 on the road (as opposed to 29-6 at home; their home record is the third best in the NBA this season).

* Who Will Surprise?: Every year, when I watch the playoffs, I like to predict who amongst the lower seeds is most likely to catch one of the higher-ups laying an egg. This year, even the lower seeds in the Western Conference look like gold, so, for now, let me go Eastward for this bit of my sports article.                                                                                                                                                                      

Assuming the postseason began today, the Atlanta Hawks (rah rah for Mike Woodson!) would hold the 8th spot in the lowly East, and would be paired off against the Boston Celtics in the first round.

If you think for one minute that the Hawks stand even a puncher’s chance in this matchup, you must be:

1) A REALLY die hard Hawks fan.

2) Delirious.

3) TWolves owner Glen Taylor (KG’s not going to “tank” this time, Mr. Taylor).

In the 2 and 7 matchup, the 2nd seeded Detroit Pistons would be paired off against the red hot Philadelphia 76ers. I love Andre Miller, I really do, flat looking J and all. The 32 year old is having a career year, averaging 17.0 ppg and 6.7 apg. He is the motor that runs the Sixers’ offensive charge. Andre Iguodala, meanwhile, is the all-around threat that finishes the job. 19.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg, and 4.6 apg are decent numbers for a guy who seems to be the perfect compliment for Miller’s unselfish style. Mix those two in with defensive stalwart Sam Dalembert, rebounding machine Reggie Evans, and up and comers Willie Green and Louis Williams, and what you get is a scrappy young crew capable of upsetting anyone.

While that is true, I think the Pistons just possess too much talent to be upended at this point by a team that may have spunk, but not enough true moxy to get past a team that treats the early part of the playoffs (at times) like a dress rehearsal. The Pistons, although lackadaisical at times, are loaded from top to bottom with the ever reliable Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton, and inside-outside threat Rasheed Wallace. Tayshaun Prince ought to be able to take care of Andre Iguodala on defense, while Rip should take Louis Williams to school. Sheed will give Dalembert a run for his money one-on-one, and him making long J’s should open up the floor for his smaller teammates to get high percentage shots close to the hoop (i.e. Hamilton). I say Pistons in 5-6 for this series.

The two matchups that intrigue me are those between the Magic and the Raptors, and the Cavs and Wizards.

Assuming Gilbert Arenas returns for the playoffs, Caron Butler can stay healthy, and DeShawn Stevenson keeps doing Kobe Bryant impressions, then the Cavs should be in for a dogfight. Cleveland has the league’s best player now in Lebron James, and decent stormtroopers in Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Wally Szcerbiak, Delonte West, and Ben Wallace, but then, such does not make them unbeatable by any stretch of the imagination.

I would assume that the Wizards would put Caron Butler or maybe Nick Young against James, one on one, but then, it’s the Wizards’ zone that will determine just how much of a chance they’ll have against the King and his court. They can choose to seal of the interior with their bigs (Songaila, Haywood, Pecherov, Blatche, Thomas), and force the Lebron to drive and kick. Sealing off Ben Wallace shouldn’t be that much of a problem in this sense, due to the Wizards’ many big men (yes, they actually have quite a few buffalos on this squad), and because the Cavaliers don’t have pure shooter like a Jason Kapono or Derek Fisher on call, zoning out Lebron seems like the best option. On offense, Washington ought to strike hard and strike fast. Should Arenas be out with injury, they’d better not get lazy in terms of driving to the cup (Jamison and Butler can tend to settle for J’s, so can Stevenson), otherwise, long, missed jumpers, would most likely lead to rebounds for Big Ben and Z, and quick trigger fastbreaks led by guys like Lebron, West, and Boobie Gibson.

I think both teams being fully healthy for this one would make for an instant classic. If I were a betting man, I’d still put my money on the Cavaliers just because Lebron is so dangerous, but then, based on what I’ve elaborated on above, do not count out the Wizards so long as Lebron’s supporting cast is made up of lumbering bigs and spot up shooters, and so long as Washington’s big 3 (or 2) have their shooting eyes on target for a couple of games. My prediction for this one is Cavaliers in 7 grueling games.

In the 3 and 6 tiff, Orlando’s Dwight Howard should be able to give guys like Primoz Brezec, Rasho Nesterovic, Joey Graham, and (gasp) Andrea Bargnani hell on the offensive end. He’s just too big, strong, and athletic for any of the aforementioned stiffs to contain. Plus, the Raptors wouldn’t want to risk putting Chris Bosh on him (Bosh would get in foul trouble too quickly).  

If Hedo Turkoglu plays anything like the Hedo of the regular season, and if Rashard Lewis stays solid, then look for Orlando to get rid of the the Raptors like a meteor shower to a bunch of oversized lizards. If the Raps double off Howard, look for Lewis and Turk to have a chance at having field days. Heck, even Keith Bogans and Keyon Dooling could have cracks at it before it’s all said and done, because of the attention Howard demands inside.

Toronto could give the Magic a run for their money, though, iif:

1) Jameer Nelson and Carlos Arroyo get outplayed by Jose Calderon and a healthy TJ Ford (possible).

2) Should the Raptors find their shooting touch (I’m talking to Jason Kapono, Anthony Parker, Andrea Bargnani, and Carlos Delfino here).

3) If the Raptors can play a lick of defense (Jamario Moon should be a good match for Rashard Lewis, ideally speaking; as a team, Toronto has a tendency to go soft on D, as evidenced by a game this season when they gave up 78 first half points to Denver en route to a 137-102 drubbing).

4) Chris Bosh can stay healthy, and roars back at Dwight Howard with stellar inside/outside play on offensive and solid help defense in a zone set (Bosh can shoot from the outside, and he should use that, so as to space out the floor for guys like Delfino and Parker; on D, he can use his length and athleticism to frustrate Howard if and when he manages to use his physical strength to barrel his way inside ala-Shaq of old).

5) The Raptors’ Andrea Bargnani can break out of his funk and be aggressive on offense (he can use his size to shoot over smaller Magic defenders, and can use his ability to put the ball on the floor to try and get closer to the rim for higher percentage shots; with this guy, I think it begins with attitude; if he commits himself to playing hard, then he’ll get his 15 points and 8 rebounds; otherwise, we can all really just begin calling him Greg Ostertag…or, not really…maybe Pat Garrity would do).

In Bizarro World, the Raptors would win in 7, in today’s world where Bush is still president of the US, Isiah Thomas is still with the Knicks in some shape or form, and Britney Spears is still continuously hounded by the Papparazzi, the Magic should win this series handily in 5.

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More NBA commentary to follow real soon! Until then, cheers!- MC